By Mike Biundo (Partner)
Look, Donald Trump’s 2024 win wasn’t just another election. It was a realignment. He flipped back Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin after they went narrow for Democrats in 2020, sweeping the Rust Belt and grabbing all seven swing states for 312 electoral votes.[1][2] That’s proof the GOP is now the real home for working-class families who’ve felt ignored for too long.
I saw the early signs back in 2012, when I was Rick Santorum’s national campaign manager. We called it the “Cracker Barrel strategy”… using the Cracker Barrel restaurant chain as a metaphor for everyday, heartland Americans: folks grabbing breakfast or comfort food at those cozy, old-country spots, not the upscale Whole Foods crowd. Santorum connected with blue-collar voters in the Midwest by hitting family values, economic security, and just showing up to listen. Fast-forward to 2016, and I got to see that same approach scale up when I served as a senior advisor on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Trump took those kitchen-table messages nationwide… jobs, wages, forgotten communities… and it clicked with the same kind of voters we targeted in ’12. That foundation built the momentum we’re seeing explode now.
Take Vivek Ramaswamy’s run for Ohio governor in 2026. As one of our clients and a Trump-endorsed former 2024 contender, he’s pulled in endorsements from at least 10 major unions, more than any other statewide candidate, including the Ohio Conference of Teamsters (50,000+ workers), Ohio Laborers’ District Council (22,000+ members), Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters, Ohio Plumbers & Pipefitters, and several building trades councils. These are the kinds of unions that used to back Democrats like Tim Ryan or Sherrod Brown almost automatically in past races. Now they’re crossing over because Vivek focuses on what helps working families… protecting jobs, wages, and real economic opportunity. As one union leader said, it’s about “results, not rhetoric.”
Cygnal Polling’s 2024 post-mortem nails it: Non-college-educated voters swung hard to Republicans, with Trump winning them by +16 (up from +2 in 2020).[3] The real story is among minorities, especially minority men. Hispanic voters shifted 24 points rightward (from D+33 to D+9), and Trump won Hispanic men by +1 (flipping a 23-point deficit). He narrowed the gap with Hispanic women, too.[3] Black voters moved 16 points toward the GOP (D+75 to D+59), driven mostly by Black men (D+60 to D+38).[3] Younger guys under 30 went R+10, and Gen Z overall tightened from D+24 to D+16.[3] This is the GOP becoming a true multi-racial, working-class party.
Here’s the key: Voters break into three groups… Saints (who’ll always be with us), Sinners (who’ll always be against us), and Savables (the persuadables we chase). I learned this running non-partisan local races: You can flip crossover Savables who usually vote Democrat if you zero in on kitchen-table stuff… what hits their wallet, their family, their day-to-day life. They don’t want sermons; they want to be seen and heard on the issues that actually affect them. It’s the same nationwide. These Savables care about what matters to them and their families more than party labels.
To keep them for 2026, we’ve got to hit economic pain with genuine empathy… think Bill Clinton’s “I feel your pain.” Cygnal’s January 2026 poll shows how raw it is: 30% aren’t sure they could cover a $1,000 emergency, 37% have zero confidence in the job market, and only 26% think the national economy’s good.[4] Inflation and costs top the list. Trump’s image bounced back by +6 points after people heard empathetic messaging about his wins and their concerns.[4]
We can’t lecture or take anything for granted. Listen, empathize with the struggle… rising bills, shaky jobs, fading dreams. Talk tax cuts (a 32% priority in Cygnal) and infrastructure as real help for families, not policy wonk stuff.[4] That’s how we lock in the working-class vote, grow our multi-racial base, and build a lasting majority. The Cracker Barrel strategy? It’s not old-school… it’s the future.
