By Andrew Boucher (Partner)
It’s hard to argue with the conventional wisdom that 2026 will be a tough year for Republicans. The House majority is razor-thin, and midterm elections historically swing against first-term Presidents.
But from a strategic, campaign-planning perspective, it’s important to remember the words of UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, who, when asked about the greatest challenges he faced, replied:
“Events, my dear boy, events.”
The truth is, we have no idea what issues will decide the outcome of the November elections. Venezuela? It could be a long-forgotten footnote by the fall campaign, or it could be front-page news.
Look back at some of the newsworthy events of the past year: DOGE, closing the border, tariffs, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. If any of those stories were to happen in October of this year, they’d be critical to election messaging. But as it stands, they’re probably not going to move the needle. The news moves too fast, and the one certainty is that something – possibly something major – will dominate the headlines in the fall.
How do you plan for the election? Well, the only true constant in politics is the economy. More specifically, it’s the answer to the question, “Are you better off today than you were [two] years ago?”
On this, the Republicans have their work cut out for them. Why? Because the economic issue that hits the hardest is inflation, and the reality is that cutting inflation doesn’t mean lower prices. The Biden Administration oversaw massive inflation. The Trump Administration cut inflation dramatically. But inflation is a measure of the increase in prices, not the prices themselves. Simply put: an Extra Value Meal still costs over $10 at McDonald’s. That’s what the voters see.
Republicans are faced with having to explain that to voters, and as the saying goes in politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.
If Republicans are going to win in November, two things will need to happen. First, key economic markers will need to continue improving: unemployment, real wages, and the stock market. Second, Republicans are going to need a response for when the Democrats point to the price of groceries and say, “See, the Republicans didn’t make prices go down.”
Republicans are going to need to identify and highlight the places where the improving economy has made a real-world difference in the average voter’s bottom line. That means putting the cost savings of gas and energy prices, tax cuts, and deregulation in real terms.
It’s not going to be easy.
Smart campaigns will also come up with proactive policy proposals for dealing with two other pocketbook issues: health care and housing, and they’re going to need to do it without simply being “Democrat-lite” and offering a proposal that hinges on government largesse. You can’t get into a bidding war with a party that’s built on using handouts to buy votes.
So, how do you prepare for 2026? Get the messaging right on the pocketbook issues, but remember that the elections will most likely hinge on events, my dear boy, events.
