Roundtable: 2024 Election Post Mortem
The 2024 election cycle has ended, leaving most politicos analyzing voter trends, what went right and wrong, and everything in between. Our team is no exception to this, and I posed the following questions to them to gather our thoughts on what the results mean for the GOP, 2026, and beyond:
- What is the biggest lesson coming from Election Day?
- Where does the GOP go from here?
- What does this mean for 2026? 2028?
- What tactic did we see the most success in this cycle?
- Where did we see the most notable shifts?
- What do you think motivated voters this election?
- Any comments?
What is the biggest lesson coming from Election Day?
- Mike Biundo: There were many lessons to be learned, so it’s hard to pick one, so I won’t; I will instead name a few. The dominant force in Republican politics is no longer the stuffy-shirt establishment Republican Party. It’s dominated by a fractured group of outside entities that play varying roles, from door-knocking to traditional paid media and everything in between. The democrat party misjudged the identity politics cards. They lost the culture war, and they lost the “Trump is bad, so re-hire us campaign.” They got away with it until the music stopped, the economy tanked, and they were left with very few tangible kitchen table ideas and an eroding, once-reliable base. Voters are fed up with traditional politicians and no longer neatly fit into Democrat or Republican camps just because of the label. They want change and are not afraid to shake up conventional wisdom and thinking to get it.
- Derek Dufresne: The shifting of the electorate and conventional knowledge of what states and districts are truly competitive has dramatically changed in a very short time span. The realignment of both parties is undeniable at this point.
- Mark Warner: If we all stay on message and communicate with the voters clearly, we can and will win.
Where does the GOP go from here?
- Mike: First, you made a set of bold promises; you had better deliver. You are renting these voters; you don’t own them. Don’t do anything stupid, don’t misread the mandate, and deliver on what you promised. In addition, with the RNC and state and local committees losing their stranglehold on the message, messaging, messengers, and voters, it’s time to get like-minded individuals in a room and rethink who we target and how groups can work together.
- Derek: Don’t get overconfident, especially headed into what is historically a difficult election for the party in power. We made a lot of big promises, and the American people expect us to deliver them soon. If we don’t, we lose.
- Mark: The American people gave us a big mandate; they elected our party because we told them we would fix the economy, border, and crime issues. We better do just that. But I also think we need to look at our party deeper and figure out how to engage more with the younger generation and women.
What does this mean for 2026? 2028?
- Mike: That depends on what we do with the majority, to be honest. Regardless, we need to be looking for relatable candidates with authentic messages and messaging. We need to rethink the map and not just spend time in places where we traditionally win. I think the expanding base of support in nontraditional voting blocs like Hispanics opens new opportunities with the right message and messages. Voters aren’t stupid, and as I said before, just because we won a set of voters once doesn’t mean we own them. We need to go out and earn it with our accomplishments, messages, and messengers.
- Derek: We need to reassess what demographics are winnable and which ones are not currently attainable in this political environment. We have to refocus on holding our newfound base while expanding it into the groups that are actually going to be receptive. Wasting valuable resources on those we think used to be with us but currently are not is futile.
- Mark: To stay focused on the issues that matter to the American people, and if we do what we said we were going to do, we will be in a much better position to keep seats and potentially win more seats. But we must stay the course and stick to our promises.
What tactic did we see the most success in this cycle?
- Mike: Boring is out, and cookie-cutter mail, TV, CTV, and voter contact get ignored. A combination of smart targeting-inspired authentic messaging with great creative content wins.
- Derek: Targeting specific types of voters in smartly designed modeled universes with messaging that will actually persuade them. Buckshot messaging might help raise name ID, but using it alone doesn’t win over swing voters or turn out specific groups of base voters.
Where did we see the most notable shifts?
- Mike: Hispanics, blue-collar, black men, and younger voters.
- Derek: Hispanics and younger men. They’ve always politically aligned more with us, but we have finally begun to figure out how to talk to them in a way that welcomes them into the party.
What do you think motivated voters this election?
- Mike: It was the economy. More broadly, kitchen table issues. If it impacted your family, that was what moved you.
- Derek: Kitchen table economic issues, which is why we must deliver tangible results for the American people on those policies quickly. They will notice and take retribution at the ballot box if we don’t.
- Mark: The big three are the economy, border, and crime. Those were the issues that drove the voters to the polls. The Democrats were all over the place and didn’t have a unified message, so they tried to sell the voters a package of goods none of them wanted.
Any comments?
- Derek: The 2026 election started three weeks ago.
Derek Dufresne: Thanksgiving Political Facts
Here are some interesting Thanksgiving political facts that I compiled to bring up around the dinner table with your guests:
- The woman who wrote “Mary Had a Little Lamb” is also responsible for making Thanksgiving an official holiday. After petitioning the government for 17 years, writer Sarah Josepha Hale finally convinced Abraham Lincoln in 1863 to make it a national holiday.
- The annual tradition of pardoning the White House Thanksgiving turkey didn’t officially begin until 1989, with President George H.W. Bush. But it was President Kennedy who let the first bird off the hook when he quipped in 1963, “We’ll just let this one grow. It’s our Thanksgiving present to him.”
- Before Thanksgiving became an official national holiday, each president had to name it so annually. In all of American history, only one Commander-in-Chief, Thomas Jefferson, refused to do so. Word is it was because the day involved prayer, and he believed strongly in the separation of church and state.
- In 1926, a Mississippi man gave the First Family a rather unconventional Thanksgiving gift: a raccoon, which apparently was considered a foodie delicacy in the Magnolia State. But instead of eating the animal, President Calvin Coolidge named her Rebecca, adding her to the collection of critters the First Family already had, which included a bear, hippo, hordes of dogs, and even two lion cubs.
- In the midst of the Great Depression, President FDR moved Thanksgiving up one week to allow more time for shopping before Christmas. Otherwise, it would have fallen on Nov. 30. The move sparked an intense public reaction, though none as memorable as the stunt pulled by Atlantic City’s then-mayor, C.D. White. In a public statement issued the day before the new Thanksgiving as designated by Roosevelt, White announced that his city would celebrate two days of thanks and that the earlier date would be known as “Franksgiving.”
- The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day Games have a political history. The tradition of playing NFL games on Thanksgiving Day dates back to 1934 when the Detroit Lions played the Chicago Bears. The game was seen as a way to promote the NFL and boost civic morale during the Great Depression.
Ascent Gives Q4: The Parkinson’s Foundation
A new quarter means a new initiative for our Ascent Gives program. We have been proud to support worthy causes submitted by our team throughout this year. This quarter is no exception as we announce our support for the Parkinson’s Foundation.
Submitted by Whit McKenzie of our Operations Department, we pledge $1,000 to the cause and encourage you to join us.
Whit shared his reason for his submission; he watched the toll the disease took on his wife’s family. He saw the strain it caused and the fear it still causes, knowing that genetic or environmental components can contribute to anyone having to suffer through this disease. Currently, without a cure, the Parkinson’s Foundation works to improve care and advance research towards a cure.
Join us in celebrating our Ascent team members’ upcoming birthdays and work anniversaries. We are grateful to have them on our team!
December 1: David Haren’s 1st Work Anniversary
