By Mike Biundo (Partner)
As we approach the 2026 midterms, with the political landscape still buzzing from Trump’s 2024 win, the Ascent Strategic Team is optimistic about Republican momentum while watching key dynamics that could solidify gains. Much will be made of the off-year elections in 2025, including gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as local contests. Still, we don’t think they’ll serve as weathervane indicators for 2026. In some ways, they’re similar to special elections: they receive all the focus, but are not actual tests of how a much larger field of contests will play out. They’re also snapshots in time, often local quirks rather than national harbingers. The real action lies in broader themes favoring the GOP, especially now that we’re deep into this avoidable government shutdown. Additionally, redistricting following the 2020 Census reapportionment, combined with state-level GOP control, gives Republicans a structural advantage, packing more Democrats into fewer seats and protecting House majorities.
Energy costs are a prime opportunity. Republicans can hammer Democrats as the root cause of family pain at the pump, to heat homes in winter, and keep the lights on, blaming their war on fossil fuels, forced green transitions, and regulatory overreach. With inflation remaining stubborn and global tensions looming, the GOP’s case is likely to land hard in energy-dependent districts.
Housing affordability is another GOP winner. Soaring costs are crushing the middle class, and Republicans are rightly pinning this on Democratic overregulation, zoning strangleholds, endless environmental reviews, and codes that choke new supply. If voters connect the dots to Biden-era policies, suburbs could shift to a red hue.
Grassroots energy tilts Republican. Though we still mourn the devastating loss of Charlie Kirk, assassinated last month while speaking at a Turning Point USA event in Utah, his high-octane energy on culture wars and economic revival lives on through the organization he built, firing up young conservatives and building real momentum. Contrast that with the “No Kings” movement’s rallies, which focus on abstract immunity fights as a political stunt rather than voter priorities. Will their lack of kitchen-table messaging doom them like it did Democrats against the Tea Party in 2010? Back then, conservatives rallied with concise, purposeful fury over Obamacare, debt, and taxes, issues that hit home and crushed the left. No Kings feels disconnected by comparison.
Immigration enforcement via ICE crackdowns appears to be a GOP strength. The law-and-order message, finally, government doing its job, should excite security-hungry “soccer moms” and outweigh Democratic spin on “heavy-handed raids.” Hispanics shifting rightward may stick with results over rhetoric, tipping tight races Republican.
Don’t sleep on the states. Gubernatorial mansions in play could be the midterms’ real headlines, showcasing GOP governance wins.
Now, with the shutdown in its fourth week, triggered on October 1 after Democrats rejected clean funding bills, the blame game is crystal clear. House Republicans passed straightforward resolutions to reopen the government until November. Still, Senate Democrats have stonewalled thirteen times, weaponizing the filibuster’s 60-vote rule to demand extras, such as Obamacare subsidies and ACA tax credits, which expire at the end of the year. Federal workers missed their first full paycheck last Friday, Smithsonian museums are shuttered, and SNAP benefits for November hang in the balance for 42 million Americans. President Trump smartly directed funds to pay troops and critical staff like FBI agents, but this mess reeks of Democratic obstruction. Voters, fed up with gridlock, will pin it on the left, echoing 2018-19 when shutdown fatigue hurt Republicans unfairly. This time, with GOP control, the contrast sharpens our edge.
The economy remains the ballgame. Republicans have innovative solutions, tax cuts, deregulation, America First trade, that they’re selling effectively. If growth kicks in, Democrats are toast; if not, it’s still winnable with proven messaging.
Pocketbook pain will trump everything. Republicans, tuned to voter struggles, are positioned to expand their edge, the ones that don’t do so at their own peril.
